6:00 am EST August 3, 2020
Data included up to 11 pm EST for the daily stats
DO NOT stop social distancing THIS IS NOT OVER
Beta model # 4
JULY 22: I never thought back in March that I would still be keeping stats in July.....this should have been over with in mid June if trump would have shut his mouth and let the states remain shut down through May. Now I think I will be doing this until a new president is elected. If one is not... then expect a total of 6 million deaths which is what would be required for herd immunity to occur without a vaccine. That is 70% of the USA with a 3 % fatality rate according to MAYO clinic..
I updated the forecast mode. I have to say that I have been correct about all the trends if you look at my comments as far back as you want.
I point this out because why can I see these trends but trump and the white house cannot. The numbers tell you what is happening.
Basically fatalities are increasing about 10 to 15% each week. Now for any of you that understand how large things can get at that increase rate ,you know the fatalities will get very high. That is what is happening now unless something changes in the country, I do not know what will stop the increase because the government is ignoring it.
But I do know from looking at the spanish flu that schools opening caused increased infection.
JULY 21: This is tragic....I had to go back to my accelerating fatality growth model because we are back where we started.
At this day in time I see nothing in the numbers that shows that the numbers will plateau. Everything is in growth upward.
The forecast model is going to get revised upward when I apply it and I really do not see anything but accelerating fatalities in these numbers and just to make sure there is more fuel on the fire trump wants to send the kids back to school. Hmmmm the virus will love that.
To put it bluntly ...the USA is screwed.
JULY 16: I have to chuckle that the president is trying to hide the numbers and or change them.
I get my data from many sources. YES the Florida dashboard is now low balling the numbers but there are direct sources of information. The CDC site is useless it is always behind in data anyway . SO if you want the real numbers they will be here .
I am extending the forecast model and we will be at 180k dead by labor day..BUT that may go higher because the RED states are doing absolutely nothing to stop this. PLEASE TAKE CARE OF YOURSELVES because the government is not.
JULY 15: Tracking States :
Percent Positive 11 Rising, 4 Stable
Fatalities 7 Day Average: 10 Rising, 5 Stable
Top 11 states in new cases: 10 Red Governors & 1 Blue
We are looking at 160 K dead by early August but if children go back to school these numbers will explode.
I updated the country comparisons. It is criminal that every civilized country has this under control except the USA, Brazil and Iran.
The Trump administration and the red governors are going go down in history as the biggest cause of COVID 19 killing Americans.
JULY 8: LIES LIES LIES from Pence at the covid press conference....There is no indication that FL, TX or AZ are curbing anything. Please go see for your selves at the PERCENT POSITIVE & the 7 Day Average of Fatalities graphs which were updated today. It is unbelievable they lie so much.
WHY do trump & pence continue to LIE about the stats and reality. The deaths have also begun to rise and will continue to do so because they follow the cases . Geezus how can pence and trump go out there and just make up BS.
Now they want to sacrifice your children by making them go to school during a pandemic.
If it is not clear to you by now trump will sacrifice every human life just to retain power.
Who else sacrificed his own people to retain power? Hitler
JULY 6: The Future: It does not take a rocket scientist to see what is happening across the USA.
I am following the numbers. The numbers do not lie regardless of how any politician sugar coats this.
Of my Tracking States, Percent Positive is up in 11, Stable in 3 and down in 1.
Everything will start reversing upwards this week and this time we are on a trajectory for more deaths than before.
The deaths will increase this week and then towards mid to the end of July they will exponentially increase like it did in the beginning of this pandemic. Only this time, even higher than before.
I have no good news here. Trump refuses to do anything about Covid 19 . The red states follow trump like puppets so the result will be MANY MANY DEAD AMERICANS.
The virus will re-spread into all the states late this month...... all the numbers show this.
I am seeing the same trends in most states that I saw for Florida in the beginning of May and it took about 4 to 6 weeks for it to explode in Florida .
It is going to get bad late July into August. We know Trump will never change his policy or admit he is wrong so prepare for many sick friends and relatives. Your area can be down now but this Virus does not care about borders anywhere.
I will do a new extended forecast model this week.
JUNE 26: 1881 Back deaths from nursing homes in NJ were added to the total deaths but I did not add them to the daily numbers.
I have been doing these stats from day 1 and the USA % positive is on the rise....the deaths have flattened which means a second wave or a surge is on the way sometime mid July.......
One reason the mortality rate has dropped is when you get a great number of new positive cases it takes 2 to 3 weeks for the deaths to occur. So the mortality rate will falsely drop until the deaths catch up.
JUNE 24: Like I said on June 4th... as soon as the PERCENT POSITIVE graph turns upward ,,,,the red flag for the second wave across the country has begun. The fatalities per day has hit its low plateau and should go stable for a week to ten days and then begin to rise again. So % positives has turned upwards and like I said on June 4th the second wave will occur in July.... the fatalities will start rising in early July.
What a catastrophe this is on top of a disaster because trump and his cult of red governors just want to ignore this. It is criminal. The bottom line is they do NOT care about HUMAN LIVES and only about pleasing the sociopath in office.
Look at the EU vs USA graph I posted...this where we should be. We could have had this under control if trump followed data and science.
JUNE 19: I have never heard so many lies out of a Governors mouth as Florida's Governor Desantis today.
Florida's covid is out of control....the data showed this on May 7th and if you look at my comments on that day, I foresaw this, so why didn't the governor?..... and not just in south Florida .... the tests positive today in Florida were 19% ..that is 1 out of 5.... the governor says the median age is younger now.... in the 30's... well OF COURSE you idiot.... the elderly and nursing home people are not out in bars or on the beach spreading the virus. This is how it started before with young people spreading it up the age ladder.
So back on May 7th the data was showing some states were doing a bad job and every single one of them has exploded and it is no coincidence these are states with red governors who are following trumps policy of just ignore it.
The reason I am getting so angry is the data showed all this and now MORE PEOPLE WILL DIE that did not have to because the RED governors are NOT following the data BECAUSE they are following trumps orders.
JUNE 12: Since the individual states are all on their own courses I have color coded each state graph.
RED means INCREASE
GREY means constant or unchanging
GREEN means decreasing.
The color code will apply to ALL graphs and data by tomorrow. Including the color of the states name.
15 States being tracked..REMEMBER % positive increasing is the first warning sign.... it takes about 2 weeks for deaths to go up from there.
JUNE 4: Not one state im looking at is decreasing anymore. They have either stabilized or going up. So the low plateau is going to be 500 deaths a day( if it gets that low) and then it looks like it will start increasing again. This looks like we will have a second wave in July not in the fall. As soon as the Percent Positive graph starts to turn that will be the start of the second wave. It has already turned in Florida and Broward And Miami-Dade Counties. I am tracking 14 other states every day I just don't put all the data on the site. I do put the weekly data up for each state and I do have the 7 Day moving Average Fatalities per Day Graph for each state up everyday and that stat is the last thing to move up or stabilize and they already are. 1rst stat to go up is % positive 2. Then positive cases 3. then Hospitalizations 4. Then Deaths. 1 & 2 are up already.
MAY 30: New forecast model 120 k dead by June 16
MAY 29: 25 States going down...10 Steady....15 States going up.... The USA Covid response is like a football team with no coach or a coach who works against his own team..... and that is Trump.
50 states are doing whatever they want and the result is CHAOS and a coach whose advice kills his own players.
I am now showing 10 states, so you can see what happens when you open too early or have a bad lockdown. The result is deaths hit a peak and stayed there. Every state should be a bell curve on the 7 day death moving average. The New York Bell Curve is the perfect example of what each state wants to achieve. The New York bell curve matches Italy's Bell Curve identically.
BUT now with conflicting advice by trump, COVID gets worse in states that listen to him.
I am doing a new forecast model but with so many states going so many different directions I have no idea how accurate it will be. All my previous models have been on the money. We will see what happens with this one.
SO I predicted 100 k dead on May 25th and we hit it. What looks like what will happen now, like I said a month ago, is we will hit a constant level of deaths and go no lower. That number looks like about 500 deaths per day up or down.
Here is the problem: All these people not wearing masks, not social distancing and having large gatherings will absolutely spread the virus. How much it increases is unknown.
The sequence of events is this: Infect..then 1. Infection rate rises 2. Hospitalizations go up 3. Deaths go up
So I am including Hospital rates for each state so you can watch what is happening for yourselves.
This entire sequence takes about a month. So what people did in May will show up in June.
I will have all these changes on the site by tomorrow.
MAY 10: Very sad Mothers Day..my moms in a nursing home with Alzheimer's and I have not been able to see her for 2.5 months.
So we hit the forecast model projection of 80k today...like it said ...the next number is 100k dead by May 25th.... Let us not forget these are people dying with families ..they are mothers, fathers, sisters, brothers and friends.
After all this time the forecast has been scarily accurate... I would go out into June with the forecast but I want to wait to see if the state openings halt the decline.
MAY 7: Whew these numbers are just not going down .... I have been tracking other states I will put the data up soon but one state that is up is Florida. I just have the feeling this is gonna explode because of numbers I am seeing that have stopped reducing. Folks be warned it is going to get worse in states that have opened up too soon. For example in Florida 2 numbers that warn of whats happening is Hospitalizations are increasing and Deaths have never reduced at best they held stable for a bit but are moving up again from a higher plateau than when this started. That is the problem when you open a state before the numbers have gone down.
PLEASE LOOK at the Global Infection rate graph for 17 countries I have been tracking for 5 weeks and you can see what can happen when a country takes a lock down seriously and when a country does not.
MAY 5: New Extended forecast model....... I may have to tweak this for a couple days .
MAY 4: This is why we should NOT be opening up anything yet......
First: The Infection rate is still around 10%. Forget the number of cases per day. No matter what number of tests they do right now 10% or so are coming back positive.
That means out of whatever number of cases test positive each day, 5.75% of those will die because that is the USA fatality rate.
Secondly: If 10% are still infected they are still infecting other people. Remember this all started with only a few people infecting everyone else and it spread.
Third: If we open up with this many people still infected, the second wave will make the first wave look like a ripple on the pond because we will not be starting on ground zero (meaning no one is infected) we will be starting with 10% infected and then it will rise from that point to death numbers that make the first wave look like nothing.
This is also why the White House forecast model is BS. You can NOT get to zero deaths a day when 10% of the people are still testing positive and 5.75% of that number will die.
This can NOT be ignored just because your tired of it..... the virus is just waiting for people to infect.
How will we know when it all goes wrong? When the fatality increase percentage stops falling
or when the % testing positive each day stops falling and begins to rise..........
SO when should we open up? When the infection rate is in the 1% range. Not in the 10% range.
MAY 2: Well you all see my forecast model...dam im amazed myself... I have not changed anything on the long plateau forecast.... it just happens to be right on the money....The numbers are insane how close they are......Either I am the luckiest forecast modeler in the world or the only one using the correct trend numbers... do a screen capture or write the numbers down for yourselves ...
I only have confidence in this model until May 8th then I am going to have to fine tune it.....
What the hell is going on in the white house..why the rush to open when the numbers CLEARLY show the lock down is working ...... there is a trend line going on with a decreasing % number that is what i am using with another decreasing % number..... ..... I could explain what I am doing but frankly I don't care.... I did this for myself and my family so I would know what to expect..if you want to live follow the numbers ..... I made these statistics public so anyone that has a brain cell could see what the facts were for themselves.....it is too bad the government does not have anyone following my numbers....... when i did the long forecast plateau model i could not believe the numbers ... i put it up ..then i took it down ..and then back up.... ..but unlike HUNCHES ..math is REALITY.....
APRIL 30: I started tracking Georgia, NY, Texas, Illinois and Washington .... 3 states staying locked down and 2 that are not as well as Florida, which is half under and half not.... to see what happens and compare them.....
Please look at the Italy Chart of Fatality Increase per day and compare it to the USA....
APRIL 28: So on April 16th I posted we would have 60 K dead by April 28th and we just about hit that ..we will tomorrow.....
My point is this...... why does a guy at his home computer like me have a better forecast model than the white house when on the same day I posted this forecast...... the white house said 60 k dead by August.....
There is another thing the numbers say...... we will not reach zero fatalities a day ..it says we will reach a .75 % to 1.5% increase a day and that is the best we do for a long period of time.
The problem with that is.... at what number of deaths are we at when that begins......
If we just would have stayed locked down to June the future forecast would have been much different....
I said this earlier.... its going to take 3 to 4 weeks to see the result of opening up and I also said all bets are off when that happens.
If we never get as low as the 1 % increase in fatalities per day that will be the indicator that we opened up too soon and if the numbers start rising or stabilizing at a higher number than we have done nothing but reignite this pandemic until it runs its own course.
We are also looking at 75k dead by May 10th. BUT>>> I may have to rerun the model and the numbers will be higher farther out because I do not know if we will continue at the projected death increases when states open up. The decline may not occur as it should.
APRIL 23: The Future: Ok I thought about this last night. We have been focusing in on whats happening daily (the Micro view)
but we can never see the big picture (the macro view) unless we step back. So I am going to include the changes by the week starting on Saturday. What you are going to see is that we are in a High plateau. How long we are in it is unclear.
So what happens next: I am really afraid by the states opening up this is just going to continue to be a series of explosions and we may remain at a high level of deaths for a long time....
What I think we will see is a decline in deaths per week starting next week and then we are going to reach some stable level of deaths per day averaging at some number which i cant forecast yet. BUT.... I know from whats happening that we never reach zero deaths a day, or a week, or anything like that.... it is going to stabilize at a lower number and that will continue to be the death rate through the summer until there is a vaccine or a second wave.
So when do the numbers say that will happen? Mid to late June.
The percent testing positive is finally starting to decrease slowly, if the pattern continues I can forecast that also.
If the country opens up ...all bets are off and where ever we are at the time we open up expect everything to go up in 2 to 3 weeks from that date and then we just wasted 2 months.
We need the infection rate to be in the VERY low single digits so we can trace and isolate.
I don't wanna be at home anymore than any of you but this is not under control yet and we need all of MAY to get the numbers down. Hey the numbers tell the story ...they show what is happening. We drove up the hill for 6 weeks, now we are driving on the flat top part of the bell curve and then we have to drive back down the hill.
This hill has a very gradual decline rate. So if it took 6 weeks to drive up the hill its going to take at least 6 weeks to drive back down.
APRIL 18: Just want to say one thing about the forecast model. It can never be exact. In the long run the forecast is showing where we are going. Someday's it will over forecast (like on Sundays due to the lack of reporting) and other days under forecast. What im looking for is it working in the long run and its been pretty good for 10 or 12 days out. What Americans do now changes the results 2 or 3 weeks out. If people just go out NOW and ignore social distancing we will not see the results in the numbers until 2 or 3 weeks later because it takes that long to infect, get sick and die. What is happening now is, although deaths are going up, the infection rate is remaining stable and slightly going down the last few days. So what we are doing is working.... we just need to bite the bullet and continue staying at home until the virus infection rate is down. I already know 3 people who died from this and many of you know more. There are good signs in the numbers it just takes a while to see it.
The CDC changed the deaths reporting to include nursing homes and at home deaths from COVID 19.
So I had to rerun the model because now either the plateau is higher or we have not reached it yet.
These are truly frightening numbers.
The death toll is doubling every 9 days. That means we will have over 60 k deaths by april 28th. The mortality rate is rising.
The global Fatality rate is 6.7 % and I can say this now.... it is very ,very likely we will reach that.
The % positive continues to be around 20%.
April 12: Everything is status quo... continuing slight decline TOTAL FATALITIES 4 DAY FLOATING AVERAGE %.
Mortality rate continuing to increase toward Global rate and % positive is continuing to hover around 20%.
I want to point out a totally worthless statistic the media and people are using to gauge where this is going.....
THE TOTAL NUMBER OF POSITIVE CASES:
This stat is TOTALLY a function of how many tests are done per day...
IT IS WORTHLESS as a predictor on its own.
The only MEANINGFUL stat it produces is the % of Positive cases per tests.. which constantly in the USA is hovering around 20%.
For example: if you perform a million tests a day. You will get 200K new positive cases ..
f you perform 10 million tests a day you will get 2 million positive cases.....
if you perform 1000 tests a day you will get 200 positive cases.
So you can make this statistic look like the cases are leveling out by performing the same amount of tests everyday because the infection rate percentage is stable around 20% ...
It will look like you have stabilized the virus because on a graph you simply are getting the same number when you perform the same amount of tests.
You are getting the same number back because the USA infection rate is 20%.
SO IF YOU ARE NOT AWARE OF THIS...... then you can make the stats look like the virus is ending by performing less tests per day.
April 11th: Both models now show a longer plateau through late April. The base fatalities look more like 2000 a day . It is going to go up per day from there for a while in small increments + or minus before it stabilizes .
Until around late April but then the decrease curve is uncertain. Regardless May is gone.
The forecast model says we have started a PLATEAU.... ( April 8th)
What does that mean ? The daily deaths should now hover for a while + or - around 1900 deaths per day and then begin a slight decline. I will know more on April 10th then I can give a updated forecast based on that number.
The 4 day average of fatalities % increase per day should continue to decline slightly each day.
It is unclear how long this plateau will last .... 2 weeks maybe more ..maybe less.... as the plateau stabilizes then we will know.....
But ..... There is no way this is over in April or May
On the Chart Below if you look at the 4 day average daily deaths rate % change it is consistently down trending but now we should expect a long period of time in the single digits as we ride out the plateau. When it turns negative the plateau is over and we begin the downside of the bell curve. I have to use a 4 day average because daily numbers fluctuate too much.
!!!!!!!!!!!! April 3rd GOOD NEWS....THE DATA IS NOW SHOWING A POSSIBLE PLATEAU starting somewhere between April 12 - 18
Explanation of Total Fatalities Daily % Change
Constant number which is Positive
Means we have accelerating.
death tolls every day
Constant number which is zero or Low Single digits
Means we have stabilized
death tolls every day
Weekly Change in total fatalities is Constant number which is Negative
Means we have Declining
death tolls. % Change is double digit 2 weeks in a row.
We Are Here
Explanation of statistics
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