3:30 pm EST April 9, 2020
Data included up to 11 pm EST for the daily stats
Beta model # 4
TODAYS UPDATE APRIL 8th !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The fatality rate continues to rise towards the global rate . The % of fatalities per day is dropping incrementally..
The % per test positive is in the 19% range... but geezus that is 1 out 5 people after 2 million plus tests....
If any of the drugs they are touting were working then our mortality rate should be dropping..but it is not........
I just ran the numbers again at 8:00 pm April 8th and the numbers still predict a plateau and then declining.....the average % decrease has been 2.00% a day. So for example although the numbers are increasing ...they are increasing 2.0% less per day. So it still predicts we started a plateau and then the new deaths per day have declining increase per day from the peak which the numbers show was probably yesterday. Please remember this works over a weeks period of time but each individual day will be variable numbers. It is also unclear how long we remain at the plateau..... looks like we are in the start of the plateau right now....
The forecast model says we have started a PLATEAU....
What does that mean ? The daily deaths should now hover for a while + or - around 1900 deaths per day and then begin a slight decline. The 4 day average of fatalities % increase per day should continue to decline slightly each day.
It is unclear how long this plateau will last 2 weeks maybe more ..maybe less.... as the plateau stabilizes then we will know.....
But ..... There is no way this is over in April or May
On the Chart Below if you look at the 4 day average daily deaths rate % change it is consistently down trending its at a 6 % increase. we should expect a long period of time in the single digits as we ride out the plateau. When it turns negative the peak is over and we begin the downside of the bell curve. I have to use a 4 day average because daily numbers fluctuate too much.
!!!!!!!!!!!! April 3rd GOOD NEWS....THE DATA IS NOW SHOWING A POSSIBLE PLATEAU starting somewhere between April 12 - 18
It shows deaths continue until July 1 where it would be sporadic less than 10 a day nationally ....Lets see what happens.
The "daily % death increase fatality prediction " is showing a consistent stable decrease per day. The problem is what is going to happen in the states that are doing nothing ..this could turn into a series of waves because if you look at whats happened globally every city goes through this curve some with higher waves and some lower waves.... so we could hit a plateau and just have continuous waves for weeks because of the states that did nothing.
One thing is certain all these states will go through the curves but by not nipping it in the bud, means we all suffer because they are just prolonging the inevitable.... so when things are stabilizing in cities and states that locked down. The other states that waited or did nothing will be out of control..... and then the only way to prevent a new spread in the country is those states will have to be quarantined.
Now here is whats is not clear....how long will we remain at the plateau and what the base fatalities per day will be when we reach it.......
When the "Fatality % increase per day" goes down, that means something is happening in a good way to control the virus ... I am including the Fatality % increase in the statistics so you can see for yourselves why the model predicts what it does....
There will be variations per day but if the model after a weeks time is within 5% then it has a very good prediction factor....
If what we doing as country is having an effect the "Fatality % increase per day" will start to go down. . Remember when it hits Zero that is the peak. So this is a bell curve with a long flat top and very long downward slope. Steeper going up (less time) slower going down (more time). Middle of bell curve is flat for who knows how long .... weeks possibly.....
So will the Forecast model numbers change? Yes.. according to average % increase or decrease of fatalities per day ..... .... the other numbers just show you whats going on....... What we want to see is a % decrease in fatalities per day ... then treatments or something else like social distancing or the slope of the bell curve is flattening then it will show up in the numbers..... not enough days of stats to see a trend..... Daily numbers will be variable so we need to look at this week by week to see what is real. This is going to be a Bell Curve so the numbers will eventually go down to zero , When that happens we are at the peak. When the numbers turn negative we are on the backside of the bell curve. Since we are all in this together you can watch how long it will take to hit the peak which would be a constant % increase number for a week or more.....but that doesnt mean its over ...it just means the rate of increase has stopped and we have peaked. Whatever that number is we will stay at that for a while, as of today, it looks like its around 1900 fatalities per day. That means every day for an extended period of time we have that many deaths.....and after that ,we still will have to go down the backside of the bell curve with negative increasing numbers.
Because we actually have no idea how many people have this..... We have over 2 million tests now..... We only have the % testing positive which is stabilizing around 19.5 %.......which is almost 1 in 5 people. Only social distancing could be doing this.
Ill wait a week or so to see if this continues to stabilize...but I have to warn you all that with an infection rate of 19.5% and the fatality rate of 3.5% ....you are not going to like the final death toll......
I could extrapolate that to the country and then multiply it by the US fatality % which is about 3.54 % and get total projected deaths but that number is rising and that is why I include the global fatality % which is 5.92 %...will we reach that? Who knows? There is a lag time between testing positive and getting sick and possibly dying. So theoretically there is no reason other than our health care system to think we wont hit that number.
I know a month ago it was 3.4% but that was only in China and I am dubious we got the real numbers from them but now we have the entire planet reporting so i choose to believe the entire planet mortality % reporting.
I am tracking Florida because if temperature has any effect on the virus it should show up in Florida first but again not enough tests being done to know that........the only number that may show if Weather is playing a factor in Florida is the % positive per test.... but we need more tests to prove that. Florida is letting each county decide to isolate or not so the virus will spread where actions have not been taken. Hence prolonging this ordeal. Everything everywhere needs to be shut down to get this over with as soon as possible. Probably the first indication what we are doing is working will be the positive % per number tested but only if they test everyone not just sick or high risk people.
Note something may be happening in florida with the death rates...... for some reason Dade county has a very low number ... it is possible that those infected are younger or we are at the very beginning of the curve and the deaths just have to catch up.
Where is the data coming from:
Slower: John Hopkins https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Fast: WorldOmeter https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Slow: Covid Tracking Project https://covidtracking.com/data/
Fast : Google worldwide stats COVID 19 https://www.google.com/search?biw=1707&bih=800&ei=KyB9XsT0LJHj_AaBlamYBg&q=covid+19&oq=covid+19&gs_l=psy-ab.12..0i131l10.86896764.86896764..86898480...0.0..0.197.377.2j1......0....1..gws-wiz.......33i299.fyZuPVa12-4&ved=0ahUKEwiEto2hjLnoAhWRMd8KHYFKCmMQ4dUDCAs
Slow: Florida Covid 19 Stats https://fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/8d0de33f260d444c852a615dc7837c86
Explanation of Total Fatalities Daily % Change
Constant number which is Positive
Means we have excelerating
death tolls every day
Constant number which is zero or close to it
Means we have stabilized
death tolls every day
Constant number which is Negative
Means we have Declining
death tolls every day
We Are Here
This explains where we are in this crisis and how long we will be in it.
Right now we are in the first graph We are in the Circle somewhere.
Until Daily Total Fatalities % falls to zero we are in the beginning of this pandemic.
When the number hits Zero we have peaked.
When Daily average % becomes Negative we are on our way out of this mess.
How long will it take? We can only watch the numbers to tell us. I think its better to know the truth then expecting this to end next week. Lets all hope we can get to graph 2 as soon as possible.
If what we are doing in our country is working that number needs to start going down.. if it doesnt ,we are not doing enough.
So of all the numbers in my stats....that is the one that determines how long this will last. We want that number to go down. The Higher that number is... the more people that are dying daily.... just hope & pray it goes down soon.
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