1:00 am EST October 30, 2020

Data included up to  11 pm  EST  for the daily stats

DO NOT stop social distancing THIS IS NOT OVER

Beta model # 4

September 27:    OK...so since no government agency will post all the data I guess I will continue, at least before  America officially becomes a Dictatorship and I am sent away for posting facts. I can not call it the United States anymore because it isn't.

Since  the truth, facts, data, science and statistics DO NOT matter to trump or Florida's governor, who just opened the entire state of Florida fully and just like his master trump.  Gov DiSaster has  declared  Covid magically has gone.

 

I would like to point out how flagrant the lies have become. 

1.  In Miami-Dade county which is Republican led and a puppet of the new Nazi regime., the death rate for the last month is twice as high as the reported hospitalizations. That means everybody that walks into a hospital with Covid  is certain to die , not once but twice.   BUT...who cares about that in Florida as long as the puppets of trump open the state before the election.

2.  The total deaths per week in Florida are 4 times what they were in June.. BUT who cares right? as long as the puppets open the state before the election and magically declare all is well.

3.  The percent Positive in Florida  is averaging 11%  just what it was  when the state was closed in the beginning of Covid March and April. BUT who cares right? as long  as trump wishes away all facts and data  the cult who follow him will believe anything and obey just like good little NAZI's.

4. The USA is still averaging 800 deaths a day. I can only imagine what is going to happen in the Fall with trumps cult of NAZI non mask wearers  and non believers in COVID.  Wow talk about a petri  dish  for Covid just waiting to be infected.  Well hopefully Covid will happily infect these morons before they vote for the Dictator in charge.

5. The number of tests in Florida, Broward County and Miami-Dade is only 1/3 of what it was.

Due to the inaccuracy of Florida covid hospitalizations I will report the numbers but that is it. I will not update the hospitalization graphs because the data is fraudulent.

We are witnessing the end of democracy before our eyes and we are letting it happen just like the Germans did with Hitler.

 

September 13:  Well the under reporting in Florida is rampant. I do NOT use the state site at all because the numbers are a joke. For example: Miami Dade is Republican run. The deaths now exceed the hospitalizations by 200%. So Twice as many people are dying a week than are in the hospital.  Seriously they expect no one is going to do the math? The number manipulation is just flagrant.

The hospital death rate nationally is between 20 to 25%.

The number of tests per week is now 20% of what it was.

I guess trumps puppets got to get the numbers looking good in the swing states.

I get all my data from 3 other sources and they all concur so it is reliable but the state hospital numbers are totally being low balled. 

Another stat that is out of whack is Percent positive in Dade & Broward. I have been doing stats from the beginning and ALL the graphs show a slow decline when positivity reduces. It is a slight slope. BUT in Broward & Dade 3 weeks ago all of a sudden the positive rate cut in half.  WELL FOLKS.... the population does NOT suddenly have 20 %  positivity one day and 10 % the next. It does NOT work that way. So there are many games being played just so the counties have stats that look good so they can open up.

Governor DiSaster of Florida is so stupid that another stat that goes out of range is mortality rate. It continues to rise because by not reporting the true number of cases the rate of death is higher. The only number that is somewhat in the ball park is deaths...although Florida stopped reporting nursing home deaths....why not.... just make up any number you want to make trump look good...

September 4: I am still tracking everything..... I had to find alternative data sources for Florida since their official site is just republican propaganda.  One clear sign when the data is False  is the graphs abruptly drop  10 percentage points. This is not how this virus works.... you get a gradual sloping down fall.... not a drop. So Florida basically is saying the rate has been lets say 20%  positive and then the next day it is a steady 7%  ...well that is impossible.... rates decline .....but slowly, not abruptly.

Florida is now only testing 30%  of what they were testing a few weeks ago everywhere or they are just lying.

 

August 27: I am still tracking the numbers on my computer  but I have gotten tired of spending 8 hours a day on this stuff so I will update the website as I have time. It is getting harder and harder  to find numbers for Florida and it is just not worth my time to search the internet everyday  because they try to hide what is going on  here.  They can hide everything they want but they can't hide the deaths. Anyway we are averaging about 1050 dead a day in the USA and you can just multiply that out  and you get over 30k dead every month . So what happens if we get another wave in the fall  like every virus has done throughout history is unknown. 

 

August 17:  Florida is pulling every trick in the book to hide the numbers. First, they stopped reporting the number of tests by county.  Second the total number of tests per week is down 40%. Third on the state website they lie about percent  positive per day and per week even though if you just divided their own numbers to calculate it you would see the percentages are much higher. Forth their graphs on percent positive do not match any of the numbers.

How does the USA get to the point where these red state governors and the president  LIE to the public about ALL the stats  even though if anyone checked the numbers  they would see they are lying.

 

AUGUST 8: All the reporting was under this week because of the hurricane/tropical storm that closed  everything along the eastern seaboard. We probably will see  back reporting in the numbers this week although not in testing because those testing sites were all shut down for  several days but as you can see hospitalizations rose to record levels so all the other numbers should rise this week.

I added the weekly numbers and will add the states weekly today.

 

JULY 22:  I never thought back in March that I would still be keeping stats in July.....this should have been over with in mid June if trump would have shut his mouth and let the states remain shut down through May. Now I think I will be doing this until a new president is elected. If one is not... then expect a total of 6 million deaths which is what would be required for herd immunity to occur without a vaccine. That is 70% of the USA with a 3 % fatality rate according to MAYO clinic..

I updated the forecast mode.  I have to say  that I have been correct about all the trends if you look at my comments as far back as you want. 

I point this out because why can I see these trends but trump and the white house cannot. The numbers tell you what is happening.

Basically fatalities are increasing about 10 to 15% each week. Now for any of you that understand how large things can get at that increase rate ,you know the fatalities will get very high. That is what is happening now unless something changes in the country,  I do not know what will stop the increase because  the government is ignoring it.

But I do know from looking at the spanish flu that schools opening caused increased infection.

JULY 21: This is tragic....I had to go back to my accelerating fatality growth model because we are back where we started.

At this day in time I see nothing in the numbers that shows that the numbers will plateau. Everything is in growth upward.

The forecast model is going to get revised upward when I apply  it and I really do not see anything but accelerating  fatalities in these numbers and just to make sure there is more fuel on the fire trump wants to send the kids back to school.  Hmmmm the virus will love that.

To put it bluntly ...the USA is screwed.

JULY 16: I have to chuckle that the president is trying to hide the numbers  and or change them.

I get my data from many sources.  YES the Florida dashboard is now low balling the numbers but there are direct sources of information. The CDC site is useless it is always behind in data anyway  . SO if you want the real numbers they will be here .

I am extending the forecast model and we will be at 180k dead by labor day..BUT that may go higher because the RED states are doing absolutely nothing to stop this. PLEASE TAKE CARE OF YOURSELVES because the government  is not.

 

JULY 15: Tracking States :

Percent Positive   11 Rising, 4 Stable

Fatalities 7 Day Average:  10 Rising, 5 Stable

Top 11 states in new cases: 10 Red Governors  & 1 Blue

We are looking at 160 K dead by early August but if children go back to school these numbers will explode.

I updated the country comparisons. It is criminal  that every civilized country has this under control except the USA, Brazil and Iran. 

The Trump administration and the red governors are going go down in history  as the biggest  cause of COVID 19 killing  Americans. 

JULY 8: LIES LIES LIES from Pence at the covid  press conference....There is no indication that FL, TX or AZ are curbing anything.  Please go see for your selves at the PERCENT POSITIVE & the 7 Day Average of Fatalities graphs which were updated today.  It is unbelievable  they lie so much.

WHY do trump & pence continue to LIE about the stats and reality.  The deaths  have also begun to rise and will continue to do so because they follow the  cases .   Geezus how can  pence  and trump  go out there and just make up BS.

Now they want to sacrifice your children by making them go to school  during a pandemic.

If it is not clear to you by now trump will sacrifice every human life  just to retain power.

Who else sacrificed his own people to retain power?  Hitler

 

JULY 6: The Future:  It does not take a rocket scientist to see what is happening  across the USA.

I am following the numbers. The numbers do not  lie regardless of how any politician sugar coats this.

Of my Tracking States,  Percent Positive is up in 11, Stable in 3 and down in 1.

Everything will start reversing upwards this week and this time  we are on a trajectory for more deaths than before.

The deaths will increase  this week and then towards   mid to  the end of July they will exponentially increase  like it did in the beginning of this pandemic. Only  this time, even higher than before.

I have no good news  here. Trump refuses to do anything about Covid 19 . The red states follow trump like puppets so the result will be MANY MANY DEAD AMERICANS.

The virus will re-spread  into all the states late this month...... all the numbers show this.

I am seeing the same  trends  in most states that I saw for Florida in the beginning of May and it took about 4 to 6 weeks for it to explode in Florida .

It is going to get bad late July  into August.  We know Trump will never change his policy or admit he is wrong so prepare for many sick friends and relatives. Your area can be down now but this Virus does not care about borders anywhere.

I will do a new  extended forecast model this week.

 

JUNE 26:  1881 Back deaths from nursing homes in NJ were added to the total  deaths but I did not add them to the daily numbers.  

I  have been doing these stats from day 1 and the USA % positive is on the rise....the deaths have flattened which means a second wave or a surge  is on the way sometime mid July.......

One reason the mortality  rate has dropped is when you get a great number of new positive cases it takes  2 to 3 weeks for the deaths to  occur. So the  mortality rate will falsely drop until the deaths catch up.

 

JUNE 24: Like I said  on June 4th... as soon as the PERCENT POSITIVE graph turns upward ,,,,the red flag for the second  wave across the country has begun.  The fatalities per day  has hit  its low plateau and should go stable for a  week  to ten days and then begin to rise again. So % positives  has turned upwards and like I said on June 4th the second wave will occur in July.... the fatalities will start rising in early July.

What a catastrophe this is  on top of a disaster because trump and his cult of red governors  just want to ignore this. It is criminal.  The bottom line is they do NOT care about HUMAN LIVES and only about pleasing the sociopath in office.

Look at the EU  vs  USA graph  I posted...this where we should be. We could have had this under control if  trump followed data and science.

o

JUNE 19: I have never heard so many lies out of a Governors mouth as Florida's Governor Desantis today.

Florida's  covid is out of control....the data showed this on May 7th and if you look at my comments on that day,  I foresaw  this, so why didn't the governor?..... and not just in south Florida .... the  tests positive today in Florida were 19% ..that is 1 out of 5.... the governor says the median age is younger now.... in the 30's... well OF COURSE you idiot.... the elderly and nursing home people are not out in bars or on the beach spreading the virus.  This is how it started before with young people spreading it up the age ladder. 

So back on May 7th  the data was showing some states were doing a bad job and every single one of them has exploded and it is no coincidence these are states with red governors who are following trumps  policy of just ignore it.

The reason I am getting so angry is the data showed all this and now MORE PEOPLE WILL DIE  that did not have to because the  RED governors are NOT following the data BECAUSE they are following trumps orders.

JUNE 12: Since the individual states are all on their own courses I have color coded each state graph.

RED means INCREASE

GREY means constant or unchanging

GREEN means decreasing.

The color code will apply to ALL graphs and data by tomorrow. Including the color of the states name.

15 States being tracked..REMEMBER % positive increasing is the first warning sign.... it takes about 2 weeks for deaths to go up from there.

 

JUNE 4: Not one state im looking at is decreasing anymore. They have either stabilized or going up. So  the low plateau is going to be 500 deaths a day( if it gets that low)  and then it looks like it will start increasing again.  This looks like we will have a second wave in July not in the fall. As soon as the Percent Positive graph starts to turn  that will be the start of the second wave. It has already turned in Florida and  Broward And Miami-Dade Counties.  I am tracking 14 other states every day I just don't put all the data on the site. I  do put the weekly data up for each state and  I do have the 7 Day moving Average Fatalities per Day Graph for each state up everyday and that stat is the last thing to move up or stabilize and they already are.  1rst stat to go up is % positive 2. Then positive cases 3. then Hospitalizations 4.  Then Deaths.  1 & 2 are up already.

MAY 30: New forecast model 120 k dead by June  16

 

MAY 29:      25 States going down...10 Steady....15 States going up.... The USA Covid response is like a football team with  no coach or  a coach who works against his own team..... and that is Trump.

50 states are doing whatever they want and the result is CHAOS and a coach whose advice kills his own players.

I am now showing 10 states, so you can see what happens when you open too early or have a bad lockdown. The result is deaths hit a peak and stayed there. Every state should be a bell curve  on the 7 day  death moving average. The  New York  Bell Curve is the perfect example of what each state wants to achieve. The New York  bell curve matches Italy's  Bell Curve identically.

BUT now with conflicting advice by  trump,  COVID gets worse in states that listen to him.

I am doing a new forecast model but with so many states going so many different directions  I have no idea how accurate it will be. All my previous models have been on the money. We will see what happens with this one.

SO I predicted 100 k dead on May 25th and we hit  it. What looks like  what will happen now,  like I said a month ago, is we will hit a constant level of deaths and go no lower.  That number looks like about 500  deaths per day up or down.  

Here is the problem: All these people not wearing masks, not social distancing and having large gatherings will absolutely spread the virus. How much it  increases  is unknown. 

The sequence of events is this: Infect..then 1. Infection rate rises 2. Hospitalizations go up  3. Deaths go up

So I am including Hospital rates for each state so you can watch what is happening for yourselves.

This entire sequence takes about a month. So what people did in May will show up in June.

I will have all these changes on the site by tomorrow.

MAY 10: Very sad Mothers Day..my moms in a nursing home with Alzheimer's and I have not been able to see her for 2.5 months.

So we hit the forecast model  projection of 80k  today...like it said ...the next number is 100k dead by May 25th.... Let us not forget these are people  dying with families  ..they are mothers, fathers, sisters, brothers and friends. 

After all this time the forecast has been scarily accurate... I would go out into June with the forecast but I want to wait to see if the state openings halt the decline.

 

MAY 7: Whew these numbers are just not going down .... I have been tracking other states I will put the data up soon but one state that is up is Florida.  I just have the feeling this is gonna explode because of numbers I am seeing that have stopped reducing. Folks be warned it is going to get worse in states that have opened up too soon. For example in Florida 2 numbers that warn of whats happening is Hospitalizations are increasing and Deaths have never reduced at best they held stable for a bit but are moving up again from a higher plateau than when this started. That is the problem when you open a state before the numbers have gone down.

MAY 6:

PLEASE LOOK at the Global Infection rate graph for 17 countries I have been tracking for 5 weeks and you can see what can happen when a country takes a lock down seriously and when a country does not.

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MAY 5: New Extended forecast model....... I  may have to tweak this for a couple days .

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MAY 4: This is why we should NOT be opening up anything yet......

First: The Infection rate is still around 10%.   Forget the number of  cases per day. No matter what number of tests they do right now 10% or so are coming back positive.

That means out of whatever number of cases test positive each day, 5.75% of those  will die because that is the USA fatality rate.

Secondly: If 10% are still infected they are still infecting other people. Remember  this all started with only a few people infecting everyone else and it spread.

Third:  If we open up  with this many people still infected, the second wave will make the first wave look like  a ripple on the pond because we will not be starting on  ground zero (meaning no one is infected) we will be starting with  10% infected and then it will rise from that point to death numbers that make the first wave look like nothing.

This is also why the White House  forecast model is BS. You can NOT get to zero deaths a day when 10%  of the people are still testing positive and 5.75% of that number will die.

This can NOT be ignored just because your tired of it..... the virus is just waiting for people to infect.

How will we know when it all goes wrong?  When the fatality increase percentage stops  falling

or when the % testing positive each day stops falling and begins to rise..........

SO when should we open up? When the infection rate is in the 1% range. Not in the 10% range.

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MAY 2: Well you all see my forecast model...dam im amazed myself... I have not changed anything on the long plateau forecast.... it just happens to be right on the money....The numbers are insane how close they are......Either I am the luckiest forecast modeler  in the world or the only one using the correct trend numbers...  do a screen capture or write the numbers down for yourselves ...

I only have confidence in this model until May 8th   then I am going to have to fine tune it.....

What the hell is going on in the white house..why the rush to open when the numbers CLEARLY show the lock down is working ...... there  is a trend line going on with a decreasing  %  number that is what i am using  with another decreasing % number.....  ..... I could explain what I am doing but frankly I don't care.... I did this  for myself and my family so I would know what to expect..if you want to live follow the numbers ..... I made these statistics public so anyone that has a brain cell   could see what the facts were for themselves.....it is too bad the government does not  have  anyone following my numbers....... when i did the long forecast plateau model i could not believe the numbers ... i put it up ..then i took it down ..and then back up.... ..but unlike HUNCHES ..math is REALITY.....  

 

APRIL 30: I started tracking Georgia, NY, Texas, Illinois and Washington  .... 3 states staying locked down and 2 that are not   as well as Florida, which is half under and half not.... to see what happens and compare them.....

Please look at the Italy Chart of Fatality Increase per day and compare it to the USA.... 

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APRIL 28:  So on April 16th I posted we would have 60 K dead  by April 28th  and we just about hit that ..we will tomorrow.....

My point is this...... why does a guy at his home computer like me  have a better forecast model than the white house when on the same day I posted this forecast...... the white house said 60 k dead by August.....

There is another thing the numbers say...... we will not reach zero fatalities a day ..it says we will reach  a  .75 %  to 1.5% increase a day and that is the best we do  for a long period of time.

The problem with that is.... at what number of deaths are we at when that begins......

If we just would have stayed locked down to June the future forecast would have been much different....

I said this earlier.... its going to  take 3 to 4 weeks to see the result of opening up  and  I also said all bets are off when that happens.

If we never get as low as the 1 %  increase in fatalities per day that will be the indicator  that we opened up too soon  and if the numbers start rising or stabilizing at a higher  number than we have done nothing but reignite this pandemic until it runs its own course.

We are also looking at 75k dead by May 10th.  BUT>>> I may have to rerun the model  and the numbers will be higher farther out because I do not know if we will continue at the projected death increases when  states open up. The decline may not occur as it should.

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APRIL 23: The Future:  Ok I thought about this last night. We have been focusing  in on whats happening daily (the Micro view)

but we can never see the big picture (the macro view) unless we step back.  So I am going to include the  changes by the week starting  on  Saturday. What you are going to see is that we are in a High plateau. How long we are in it is unclear. 

So what happens next:  I am really afraid by the states opening up this is just going to continue to be a series of explosions and we may remain at a high level of deaths for a long time.... 

What  I think we will see  is a decline in deaths per week starting next week and then we are going to reach some stable level  of deaths per day averaging at some number  which i cant forecast yet.  BUT.... I  know from whats happening that we  never reach zero deaths  a day,  or a week,  or anything like that.... it is going to stabilize at a lower number and that will continue to be the death rate through the summer until there is a vaccine or a second wave.

So when do the numbers say that will happen?  Mid to late June.

The percent testing positive is finally starting to decrease slowly, if the pattern continues I can forecast  that also.

If the country opens up ...all bets are off and where ever we are at the time we open up expect everything to go up in 2 to 3 weeks from that date and  then we just wasted 2 months.

We need the infection rate to be in the VERY low single digits  so we can trace and isolate.

I don't wanna be at home anymore than any of you  but this is not under control yet and we need all of MAY  to get the numbers down. Hey the numbers tell the story ...they show  what is happening.  We drove up the hill for 6 weeks, now we are driving on the flat top part of the bell curve and then we have to drive back down the hill.

This hill has a very gradual decline rate. So if it took 6 weeks to drive up the hill its going to  take at least 6 weeks to drive back down.

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APRIL 18: Just want to say one thing about the forecast model. It can never be exact. In the long run the forecast is showing where we are going. Someday's it will over forecast  (like on Sundays due to the lack of reporting) and other days under forecast.  What im looking for is it working in the long run  and its been pretty good  for 10 or 12 days out.  What  Americans do now changes the results 2 or 3 weeks out.  If people just go out NOW and ignore social distancing we will not see the results in the numbers until 2 or 3 weeks later because it takes that long to infect, get sick and die. What is happening now is, although deaths are  going up, the infection rate is remaining stable and slightly going down  the last few days. So what we are doing is working.... we just need to bite the bullet and continue  staying at home until the virus  infection rate is down. I already know 3 people who died from this and many of you know more. There are good signs in the numbers it just takes a while to see it.

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APRIL 16:

The CDC changed the deaths reporting to include nursing homes and at home deaths from COVID 19. 

So I had to rerun the model because now either the plateau is higher or we have not reached it yet.

These are truly frightening numbers.

The death toll is doubling every 9 days. That means we will have over 60 k deaths by april 28th. The mortality rate  is rising.

The global Fatality rate is 6.7 % and I can say this  now.... it is very ,very likely we will reach that.

The % positive continues to be around 20%.

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April 12: Everything is status quo... continuing slight decline TOTAL FATALITIES 4 DAY FLOATING AVERAGE %.

Mortality rate continuing to increase toward Global rate and % positive is continuing to hover around 20%.

BE AWARE:

I want to point out a totally worthless statistic the media and people are using to gauge where this is going.....

THE TOTAL NUMBER OF POSITIVE CASES:

This stat is TOTALLY a function of how many tests are done per day...

IT IS WORTHLESS as a predictor on its own.

The only MEANINGFUL stat  it produces is the % of Positive cases per tests.. which constantly in the USA is hovering around 20%. 

For example:  if you perform a million tests a day.  You  will get 200K new positive cases  ..

f you perform  10 million tests a day  you will get 2 million positive cases.....

if you perform 1000 tests a day you will get 200 positive cases.

So you can make this statistic look like the cases are leveling out by performing the same  amount of tests everyday because the infection rate percentage is stable around 20% ...

It will look like you have stabilized the virus because on a graph you simply are getting the same number when you perform the same amount of tests.

You are getting the same number back because the USA infection rate is 20%.

SO IF YOU ARE NOT AWARE OF THIS...... then you can make the stats look like the virus is ending by performing less tests per day.

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April 11th: Both models now show a longer plateau through late April.  The base fatalities look more like 2000  a day .  It is going to go up per day from there  for a while in small increments + or minus before it stabilizes .

Until around late April but then the decrease curve is uncertain. Regardless May is gone.

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The forecast model says we have started a PLATEAU.... ( April 8th)

What does that mean ?  The daily deaths should now  hover for a while  + or -    around  1900 deaths per day  and then begin a slight decline.  I will know more on April 10th then I can give a updated forecast based on that number.

The 4 day average of fatalities % increase per day should continue to decline slightly each day. 

It is unclear how long this plateau will last .... 2 weeks  maybe more ..maybe less.... as the plateau stabilizes  then we will know..... 

But ..... There is no way this is over in April or May

On the Chart Below if you look at the  4 day  average daily deaths rate % change  it is consistently down trending but now  we should expect  a long period of time in the single digits as we ride out the plateau.  When it turns negative the plateau is over and we begin the downside of the bell curve.  I have to use a 4 day average because daily numbers fluctuate too much.

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!!!!!!!!!!!!  April 3rd  GOOD NEWS....THE DATA IS NOW SHOWING A POSSIBLE PLATEAU  starting somewhere between April 12 - 18 

Explanation of Total Fatalities Daily % Change

Constant number which is Positive

Means  we  have accelerating.

death tolls every day

Constant number which is zero or Low Single digits

Means  we  have stabilized

death tolls every day

Weekly Change in total fatalities  is Constant number which is Negative

Means  we  have Declining

death tolls. % Change is double digit 2 weeks in a row.

We Are Here

Explanation of statistics

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